Maritime cycles in the dry bulk cargo market : A theoretical and empirical analysis for the cycles of the period 1970-1990
Part of : Αρχείον οικονομικής ιστορίας ; Vol.X, No.1-2, 1999, pages 21-40
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21-40
Abstract:
In this article we intend to underline the main causes for the formation of round fluctuation in the shipping market (tramp) of dry bulk cargo during 1970-1990. These causes resulted not only in the configuration of freight rate but also in various fields of the global shipping economy. With a more comparative spirit, following events that have been observed in the shipping cycles during the aforementioned period are being analysed here below. More accurately we aim to emphasise the critical moments (collapse and trough) and the unforeseen development (booms) in the shipping market. The freight rate is considered to be extremely important and it is being related to the rates of scrap , purchasing and shipbuilding. Finally shipping cycles are being repeated in a stable and consistent way and causes for their existence may be traced in similar sectors, though their only difference may lie on their duration and the duration of their phases. These declinations considered neither vital nor harmful for the cyclesν structure. Possible changes and variations that exist in shipping activities have a great impact on the cash-flow. Bearing in mind the flexibility and the developments that occurred in shipping market these variations believed to be quite normal. However this theory has no relation with the structure and constant repetition of the shipping cycles since rates have not been affected during 1970-1990.
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