Tourism in the region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace : A statistical forecasting model
Part of : Αρχείον οικονομικής ιστορίας ; Vol.XX, No.2, 2008, pages 67-78
Issue:
Pages:
67-78
Abstract:
One of the most important issues for Greek tourism is the intense seasonality of demand. This phenomenon affects the entire travel and tourism sector of Greece but mainly the hospitality sector. In this paper we use monthly percentages of occupancy of all tourist accommodations (except camping sites) for the Eastern Macedonia and Thrace region, from January 1995 until December 2005. Following the Box – Jenkins (1976) method, we construct a statistical model whish has the best fit to our data. We analyze the trend and the seasonality of our data and we make forecasts for the following five years.
Subject:
Subject (LC):
Keywords:
Time series, Box-Jenkins, forecasting, seasonality, hotels, tourism data
Notes:
JEL classification: C32, C53
