Efficient predictive modelling for archaeological research
Part of : Mediterranean archaeology & archaeometry : international journal ; Vol.14, No.1, 2014, pages 119-129
Issue:
Pages:
119-129
Abstract:
The study presents a general methodology for designing, developing and implementing predictive modelling for identifying areas of archaeological interest. The methodology is based on documented archaeological data and geographical factors, geospatial analysis and predictive modelling, and has been applied to the identification of possible Macedonian tombs’ locations in Northern Greece. The model was tested extensively and the results were validated using a commonly used predictive gain, which proved the efficiency of the model’s predictive ability and its capability in providing answers to a series of questions related to archaeological research issues.
Subject (LC):
Keywords:
Archaeology, Predictive modelling, GIS, Archaeological research, Macedonian tombs
References (1):
- Al-Muheisen, Z. and Al-Shorman, A. (2004) The Archaeological Site of Bediyeh: theConstructed Landscape. Syria, 81, 177-190.Alexakis, D., Sarris, A., Astaras, T. and Albanakis, K. (2009) Detection of Neolithicsettlements in Thessaly (Greece) through multispectral and Hyperspectralsatellite Imagery. Sensors, 9:2, 1167-1187.Aubry, T., Luís, L. and Dimuccio, A. L., (2012) Nature vs. Culture: present-day spatialdistribution and preservation of open-air rock art in the Côa and Douro RiverValleys (Portugal). Journal of Archaeological Science, 39:4, 848-866.Bauer, A., Kathleen, N., Park, L. and Matney, T. (2004) Archaeological site distribution bygeomorphic setting in the southern Lower Cuyahoga River Valley, NortheasternOhio: initial observations from a GIS database. Geoarchaeology: An InternationalJournal, 19:8, 711–729.Burns, G., Fronabarger, A. K. and Whitley, T. G. (2008) Predictive modeling of culturalresources in the Theban Necropolis, Luxor, Egypt. In: Posluschny A., LambersK., Herzog I. (Eds.), Layers of perception. Proceedings of CAA Conference, 35thAnnual Meeting, Berlin, Germany 2007, Rudolf Habelt GmbH, Bonn.Conolly, J. and Lake, M. (2006) Geographical Information Systems in Archaeology, CambridgeUniversity Press, Cambridge.De Reu, J., Bourgeois, J., De Smedt, P., Zwertvaegher, A., Antrop, M., Bats, M., DeMaeyer, P., Finke, P., Van Meirvenne, M., Verniers, J. and Crombé, P. (2011)Measuring the relative topographic position of archaeological sites in thelandscape, a case study on the Bronze Age barrows in northwest Belgium.Journal of Archaeological Science, 38:12, 3435-3446.Duke, C. (2003) Quantifying Palaeolithic landscapes: computer approaches to terrainanalysis and visualization. In: Doerr M., Sarris A. (Eds.), The digital heritage ofarchaeology, Proceedings of CAA Conference, 29th Annual Meeting, Heraklion,Crete, Greece, 2002, Hellenic Ministry of Culture, Athens, Greece, 2003, pp. 139–146.Fernandes, R., Geeven, G., Soetens, S. and Klontza-Jaklova, V. (2011) Deletion/Substitution/Addition (DSA) model selection algorithm applied to thestudy of archaeological settlement patterning. Journal of Archaeological Science,38:9, 2293-2300.Fisher, P., Farrelly, C., Maddocks, A. and Ruggles, C. (1997) Spatial Analysis of VisibleAreas from the Bronze Age Cairns of Mull. Journal of Archaeological Science, 24:7,581-592.Fletcher, R. (2008) Some spatial analyses of Chalcolithic settlement in Southern Israel.Journal of Archaeological Science, 35:7, 2048–2058.Fry, G. L. A., Skar, B., Jerpansen, G., Bakkestuen, V. and Erikstad, L. (2004) Locatingarchaeological sites in the landscape: a hierarchical approach based on landscapeindi-cators. Landscape and Urban Planning, 67:1-4, 97-107.Gourad, K. (1999) Geographic Information Systems in Archaeology: A Survey, UnpublishedMaster thesis, Hunter College of the City University of New York, Departmentof Anthropology, USA.Graves, D. (2011) The use of predictive modelling to target Neolithic settlement andoccupation activity in mainland Scotland. Journal of Archaeological Science, 38:3,633–656.Harris, T.M. and Lock, G.R. (1995) Toward an Evaluation of GIS in EuropeanArchaeology: the Past, Present and Future of Theory and Applications. In: LockG., Stančič Z. (Eds.), GIS and archaeology: a European perspective, Taylor & Francis,London, pp. 349-365.Hatzinikolaou, E. and Hatzichristos, T. (2004) Approaching the paradigm of choosingsettlements locations in Prehistoric period using GIS and quantitative methods, 3rdHellasGIs Geo-information Society, Athens, May 4-5, Greece, 2004.Kohler, T. A. and Parker, S. C. (1986) Predictive models for archaeological resourcelocation. In: Schiffer M. B. (Ed.), Advances in Archaeological Method and Theory 9,Academic Press, New York, 1986, pp. 397-452.Kotsakis, K. and Dafou, S. (2002) GIS and predictive modelling of archaeological site location:the Langadas survey project, 2nd HellasGIs Social Practices and SpatialInformation, European and Greek Expertise in GIS, Thessaloniki, June 27-28,Greece, 2002.Kvamme, K.L. (1988) Development and testing of quantitative models. In: Judge J.W.,Sebastian L. (Eds.), Quantifying the Present and Predicting the Past: Theory, Methodand Application of Archaeological Predictive Modelling, U.S. Department of theInterior, Bureau of Land Management Service Center, Denver, CO, pp. 325 - 428.Kvamme, K.L. (1992) A predictive site location model on the high plains: an examplewith an independent test. Plains Anthropologist, 37:138, 19–40.Lageras, K. E. (2002) Visible intentions? Viewshed analysis of Bronze Age burial moundsin western Scania, Sweden, In: C. Scarre (Ed.), Monuments and Landscape inAtlantic Europe. Perception and Society during the Neolithic and Early Bronze Age,Routledge, London/New York, pp. 179-191.Lilimbaki-Akamati, M. and Troxidis, K. (2004) New Macedonian tomb at LefkadiaImathias, Arch. Ergo Macedonia & Thtace 18, 465-484.Löwenborg, D. (2009) Landscapes of death: GIS modelling of a dated sequence ofprehistoric cemeteries in Västmanland, Sweden. Antiquity, 83:322, 1134-1143.Löwenborg, D. (2010) Using Geographically Weighted Regression to Predict SiteRepresentativity. In: Frischer B., Crawford J. W., Koller D. (Eds), Making HistoryInteractive, Proceedings of CAA Conference, 37th Annual Meeting,Williamsburg, Virginia 2009, Archaeopress, Oxford, 2010, pp. 203-215.Löwenborg, D. (2010) Digital Perceptions of the Landscape: A GIS based analysis of thelocation of burial grounds in Västmanland, Sweden. Acta Archaeologica, 81:1, 124-137.Miller, S. G. (1993) The Tomb of Lyson and Kallikles, A painted Macedonian Tomb. Philipp vonZabern, Mainz am Rhein.Moysiadis, A.K. and Perakis, K. G. (2010) Probability Modelling of Archaeological Siteswith the Use of Geoinformation, 30th EARSeL Symposium: Remote Sensing forScience, Education and Culture, May 5-June 3, Paris, France, 2010.Saaty, T.L. (1980) The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw Hill International, New York,London, Toronto.Siart, C., Eitel, B. and Panagiotopoulos, D. (2008) Investigation of past archaeologicallandscapes using remote sensing and GIS: a multi-method case study fromMount Ida, Crete. Journal of Archaeological Science, 35:11, 2918-2926.Simoni, E. and Pappas, V. (2010) Method for the exploitation of archaeological informationderiving from the implementation of building permits, 6th HellasGIS GeographicalInformation Systems, Athens, December 2-3, Greece, 2010.Stancic, Z. and Kvamme, K. (1999) Settlement pattern modelling through BooleanOverlays of social and environmental variables. In: Barceló J. A., Briz I., Vila Α.(Eds.), New Techniques for Old Times, Proceedings of CAA Conference, 26thAnnual Meeting, Barcelona, 1998, BAR International Series 757, Archaeopress,Oxford, 1999, pp. 231–237.Vanacker, V., Govers, G., Van Peer, G., Verbeek, C., Desmet, J. and Reyniers, J. (2001)Using Monte Carlo simulation for the environmental analysis of smallarchaeologic datasets, with the Mesolithic in Northeast Belgium as a case study.Journal of Archaeological Science, 28:6, 661–669.Van Leusen, P.M. (2002) Pattern to process: methodological investigations into the formationand interpretation of spatial patterns in archaeological landscapes, Ph.D. thesis,University Groningen, Groningen.Vaughn, S. and Crawford, T. (2009) A predictive model of archaeological potential: Anexample from northwestern Belize. Applied Geography, 29:4, 542-555.Voogd, H. (1983) Multi-criteria evaluations for urban and regional planning, Pion Limited,London.Warren, R.E. (1990) Predictive Modeling in Archaeology: A Primer. In: Allen K. M. S.,Green S. W., Zubrow E. B. W. (Eds.)., Interpreting Space: GIS and Archaeology,Taylor & Francis, London, pp. 90–111.Warren, R. E. and Asch, D. L. (2000) A Predictive Model of Archaeological Site Locationin the Eastern Prairie Peninsula. In: Wescott K. L., Brandon R. J. (Eds.), Practicalapplications of GIS for archaeologists. A predictive modelling kit, Taylor & Francis,London, pp. 5-32.Willey, G.R. (1953) Prehistoric Settlement Patterns in the Viru Valley, Peru. Bureau ofAmerican Ethnology Bulletin 155. Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC.Williams, S. (1956) Settlement patterns in the lower Mississippi valley, In: G. Willey (Ed.),Prehistoric Settlement Patterns in the New World, Viking Fund Publications inAnthropology 23, New York, pp. 52–62.Williams, L., Thomas, D. and Bettinger, R. (1973) Notions to numbers: Great Basinsettlements as polythetic sets, In: C.L. Redman (Ed.), Research and Theory inCurrent Archaeology, John Wiley & Sons, New York, pp. 215–237.Wheatley, D. (1995) Cumulative Viewshed Analysis: a GIS-based method for investigatingintervisibility, and its archaeological application. In: Lock G., Stancic Z.(Eds.), Archaeology and Geographical Information Systems: A European Perspective,Taylor & Francis, London, pp. 171-186.Woodman, P. E. (2000) A predictive model for Mesolithic site location on Islay usinglogistic regression and GIS. In: Mithen S. J. (Ed.), Hunter-Gatherer LandscapeArchaeology: The Southern Hebrides Mesolithic Project, 1988-98, ArchaeologicalFieldwork on Colonsay, Computer Modelling, Experimental Archaeology, and FinalInterpretations, The McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research, Cambridge,pp. 445-464.